Wu Wei

Hearing Henry V in Tbilisi*

*with apologies to "Reading Lolita in Teheran"

We found there was a group from the OUDS (Oxford University Dramatic Society**) was visiting Tbilisi, playing Henry V for 3 nights so a party was organised.

The place was packed, not a mobile rang (very unusual), nearly everyone came back after the interval. Full marks to the audience because  conditions were not good.  There was no airconditioning so it was like a Turkish bath inside.  The acoustics were awful, the hall being rectangular (ie shaped for music not speech), and there seemed to be no programme. That made it really difficult to hear many of the actors, and unless you know a play really well, it helps to hear the words.

The Georgian audience had subtitles overhead (too far overhead to watch the stage and read) but there was a translation voiceover on earphones, which occasionally hissed and crackled so loud we could hear it too.

I realised I had never seen the Branagh film, or even seen the play, so I mugged up on the plot on the internet 5 minutes before I left.  That didn't help much, as it was rather a cut down play, with a cast of about 10, alternately playing English and French, which must have dictated a few limitations.

Still we all cheered (inwardly) when we heard

Once more into the breach, dear friends, once more...

Cry "God for Harry! England and St George!"

Though perhaps it was a different St George for the audience, since St George is also the patron saint of Georgia and England and Georgia share the flag of red cross on white background.

By then it was clear that this was a play about war, about battles lost and won.  A clever choice to bring to Tbilisi.  But no parallels between Prince Hal and Saakashvili.

I was struck by the line 

"no King of England was not King of France", 

which carries no force today but at the time must have been a rousing cry in itself.

We all remarked that Putin should have been in the audience when King Harry gives no sympathy for Bardolph (an old friend) who is about to be executed for pillage, and  explains how to treat the citizens of France:

We would have all such offenders so cut off: and we give express charge that in our marches through the country there be nothing compelled from the villages, nothing taken but paid for, none of the French upbraided or abused in disdainful language; for when lenity and cruelty play for a kingdom, the gentler gamester is the soonest winner.

But the end of the play showed the futility of war. Henry dies and his young wife is left with a baby. All lands in France are lost.  

A lesson for both Putin and Saakashvili.

** the OUDS was the starting point for the career of many famous British actors

August war again?

Latest from Yulia Latynina in the Moscow Times here:

The Kremlin's behavior is driven by both rational and irrational motives. An irrational motive is Putin's stated desire to hang Saakashvili by the balls. A rational motive is the desire to convince the world that Saakashvili has already hanged himself by the balls.

"Caucasus 2009" is strikingly similar to the Russian exercises that preceded the August 2008 war with Georgia. The smell of war is once again in the air. Counterterrorism operations have been instituted in the Prielbrusiye region on the Russian-Georgian border, many people have been evacuated from the region and Russia has beefed up its forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Like deja vu, the Kremlin is again accusing Georgia of aggression, and yet it is Moscow that has insisted that all observers from the United Nations and Europe leave the region to remove unnecessary witnesses to Russia's planned aggression. It would be difficult to label these moves as simply blackmail. Russia is mobilizing for war.

The Kremlin's foreign policy is driven by one basic principle: It will pursue an aggressive, hostile policy as long as it believes it can get away with it.

Joe Biden is coming to Tbilisi  between July 22 and 24.  After that there's a clear run for Putin unless Sarkozy has any plans to visit as well.

More gloom

From here

So now everyone awaits Obamas mission to Moscow on the 6th of july. Most analysts think that his performance would mean the difference of "invade" or "not invade" Georgia. I really hope Obama will be firm, and won't proceed with the naïve "reset" project. Russia needs US as an enemy in order to keep the current cleptocracy at the power, thus persuing the "reset" project will only serve to project US as weak, and confirm the image Putin want's to create.

The rest of the discussion and comments suggest that Russia has enough conflict in the North Caucasus to want to have more in the South.

On the other hand, in the 19th century, Russia conquered the North Caucasus only when it had conquered and created a stable peace in Georgia and control of its southern border.  So trouble erupting on its southern border would need to be sorted out first, with this line of thinking.

And this year in Georgia we have ...

From the Jamestown Foundation archive:

7 May 2009  Increasing risk of Russian Intervention in Georgia

12 May 2009 Radical Georgian Opposition Considers Shift in Tactics

21 May 2009 Radical Opposition Threatens to Disrupt Georgian Transportation

29 May 2009 Moscow Playing with Multiple Options on Black Sea Pipelines

2 June 2009 U.N. Secretary-General Revises Report on Abkhazia under Russian Pressure

12 June 2009 Moscow Ready to Scuttle U.N. and OSCE Missions in Georgia

18 June 2009 Russian Military Chief Accuses Georgia of Preparing Aggression

Sounds familiar doesn't it?  

Similarities with last year                                   
Disillusionment with Saakashvili                         
Disorganisation of the Opposition (and now more angry)                     
Russian military activity in breakaway areas (and increased  informal militias)  
Ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Ineffectiveness of UN and OSCE monitoring  (no monitoring in breakaway areas)                                     
Russian military manoeuvres in the North Caucasus again in July
Holiday season coming up

Extra disruptive factors
Global financial crisis distracting the rest of the world
Sever financial trouble at home in Russia needs adventures abroad as distraction
President Obama still supporting Georgia even though Europe has gone cool
NATO manoeuvres held in Georgia
More trouble in Moldova and Ukraine
Increasing troubles in North Caucasus this month
Awareness of the lack of readiness of Russian army

From the 16 June Jamestown article we have the following:

The most dangerous period within which a new full-scale war with Georgia might occur will be from July 10 until after President Barack Obama visits Moscow in August, while the invasion forces are already deployed and poised for action, under the cover of "Kavkaz-2009." If Russian forces go into action, their objectives will be decisive.

The author of the 16 June article, Pavel Felgenhauer, continues that the Russian strategic objectives will be:

1. Regime change and the forceful demilitarization of Georgia, fully dismantling and disarming the regime-loyal Georgian army, border guards and special police forces.

2. Establishing a secure land corridor linking Russia to its strategically important military base in Armenia.

3. Transforming Georgia into a loose confederation of its many semi-independent regions with their regional king-pins, with a weak central government and without any national military-security forces. Russian military forces will be permanently stationed within the Georgian confederation, ensuring influence, control of energy supply corridors to the Caspian and Central Asia, and ending the country's aspirations to join NATO.

The first objective will hardly be difficult given the performance of the Georgian army last year, since the global financial crisis has meant that it could not be re-equipped and it can hardly be much better trained now.  While the Russian army was not better equipped or much better disciplined, it comes with bigger numbers and fire power.

The second objective is essential, as currently not only is there no land access, but Georgia also controls the supply of gas to Armenia, and we all know that gas can be used as a political weapon.

The ease of achieving the third objective was amply demonstrated last August when Georgia was effective cut in two after the advance up to the main east-west highway at Gori, which also houses a large military base.  The advance on Tbilisi will be aided by the new motorway being constructed as part of Georgia's ambition to be a transportation transit corridor, to which it is dedicating most of its development resources, without considering the risks of putting all its eggs in one basket.

Felgenhauer continues that the Russian operational objectives will be to:

1. To engage and fully decimate the most capable Georgian government forces (artillery and special forces, including police special forces) in decisive battles.

2. To isolate Georgia from any possible external aid by taking under control its ports, major roads and airfields. One of the prime military targets of any future campaign could be the cluster of airfields and airstrips east of Tbilisi (Vaziani).

3. When the regular Georgian army, police and security forces are smashed, the existing political internal tensions could precipitate the disintegration of the present unified Georgian state. The international community may eventually leave Russia to manage the ensuing mess.

Russia managed to bomb Poti and the military airports last year without any problem. Felgenhauer has already described here in February the plan for taking Tbilisi so it is already well known.

And what else is reassuring?

With its present array of weapons, training and capabilities, the Georgian forces do not appear sufficient to deter Russia. The international community is doing almost nothing, apparently hoping that marginalizing Georgia and charming Russia is the best possible policy. The U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs Philip H. Gordon has confirmed that the U.S. will not provide Georgia with any defensive or other weapons (RIA Novosti, June 9). This development has been eagerly awaited in Moscow.

And I forgot: this year we don't have any distractions like the Olympic Games.  Luckily Joe Biden is coming to Georgia for 20-24 July.  That should give us till the end of July at least.

If that's not enough for you, I recommend this week's International Crisis Group report here, encouragingly titled "Georgia-Russia: Still Insecure and Dangerous".  That's only South Ossetia, apparently there's worse to come on Abkhazia.

This time last year in Georgia ....

From the Jamestown Foundation Archives (EuroAsia Daily Monitor except where marked otherwise)

1 May 2008  ANNEXATION AND MILITARIZATION OF ABKHAZIA CONTINUE APACE

2 May 2008 RUSSIA REINFORCES FORCES IN ABKHAZIA AS A POSSIBILITY OF ARMED CONFLICT LOOMS

5 May 2008  RUSSIA'S STRANGE "PEACEKEEPING" OPERATION IN ABKHAZIA

5 May 2008  RUSSIA DOUBLING ITS TROOPS IN GEORGIA'S ABKHAZIA REGION

6 May 2008  INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS PASSIVE AS RUSSIA MOVES TROOPS INTO ABKHAZIA

7 May 2008  THE WEST RESPONDS WEAKLY TO RUSSIAN CHALLENGES IN GEORGIA: PART I

8 May 2008 THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART II

9 May 2008 THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART III

12 May 2008  WILL PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV'S FIRST CRISIS BE GEORGIA?

15 May 2008 RUSSIAN JOURNALISTS USED AS CHANNEL FOR TBILISI-MOSCOW CONTACTS

16 May 2008 U.N. RESOLUTION ON ABKHAZIA SHOWS WHO'S WHO ON ETHNIC CLEANSING

19 May 2008 GEORGIA HOLDS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN A DANGEROUS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

21 May 2008  MOSCOW ENCOURAGES NORTH-SOUTH OSSETIAN IRREDENTISM AGAINST GEORGIA

22 May 2008 A GEORGIAN CHARM OFFENSIVE IN MOSCOW

3 June 2008  RUSSIA DEPLOYS RAILWAY TROOPS TO ABKHAZIA 

4 June 2008  EUROAPPEASEMENT: THE EU'S ANSWER TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA

13 June 2008   SOLANA RETURNS EMPTY-HANDED FROM ABKHAZIA

13 June 2008  MEDVEDEV CONTINUES AND ESCALATES PUTIN'S HARD LINE ON GEORGIA

19 June 2008  MOSCOW READY FOR MAJOR CONFRONTATIONS WITH PRO-WESTERN GEORGIA AND UKRAINE

19 June 2008  GEORGIAN OPPOSITION RIVEN BY MULTIPLE SPLITS AS NEW PARLIAMENT OPENS

23 June 2008  GAZPROM'S MOVE ON ABKHAZIA: MORE REASONS FOR GEORGIA TO BLOCK RUSSIA'S WTO ACCESSION

26 June 2008  THE WEST IS CONFUSED ABOUT WHAT TO DO IN ABKHAZIA

27 June 2008  GEORGIA HIGH ON THE EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT AGENDA

30 June 2008  GEORGIA LAUNCHES A THREE-TRACK DIPLOMATIC EFFORT ON ABKHAZIA

7 July 2008   GUAM SUMMIT HELD AMID ADVERSE TRENDS ON ENERGY AND THE FROZEN CONFLICTS

11 July 2008  "DE-RECOGNITION" OF GEORGIA'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY DISQUALIFIES RUSSIA AS "PEACEKEEPER"

17 July 2008  RUSSIA IS STRONGER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE

17 July 2008 Russia Holds Military Exercises in the North Caucasus  (North Caucasus Analysis)

18 JULY 2008  MOSCOW, SOKHUMI STOP GERMAN PLAN BEFORE THE START

22 JULY 2008  STEINMEIER'S PLAN ON ABKHAZIA: BENIGN INTENTIONS, LIMITED RELEVANCE, BLOCKED BY MOSCOW

23 JULY 2008 POST-MORTEMS ON THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

24 JULY 2008 GEORGIA, U.S. ADDRESSING GAPS IN THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

31 JULY 2008 RUSSIAN RAILROAD TROOPS COMPLETE MISSION IN ABKHAZIA

1 AUGUST 2008 BERLIN CONSULTATIONS ON ABKHAZIA DERAILED

4 AUGUST 2008 MOSCOW ORCHESTRATES WAR SCARE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

7 AUGUST 2008 OSSETIAN SEPARATISTS ARE PROVOKING A MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERVENTION

8 AUGUST 2008 THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW'S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

THE WAR HAS STARTED.

Did you see it coming?

Russia's Coming War with Georgia

Stories with this headline are doing the rounds, mostly originating in remarks made by Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst who writes in Novaya Gazeta.  He gave regular warnings about Russian troop build-ups in Abkhazia and South Ossetia before last year's August war, so perhaps his warnings should be headed.   

The recent remarks first appeared here ion the jamestown Foundation website on 12 Feb.

While snow covers the Caucasian mountain passes until May, a renewed war with Georgia is impossible. There is hope in Moscow that the Georgian opposition may still overthrow Mikheil Saakashvili's regime or that the Obama administration will somehow remove him. However, if by May, Saakashvili remains in power, a military push by Russia to oust him may be seriously contemplated. The constant ceasefire violations could escalate to involve Russian servicemen - constituting a public casus belli. The desire by the West to "reset" relations with Moscow, putting the Georgia issue aside, may be interpreted as a tacit recognition of Russia's right to use military force.

Jamestown is also saying later here

Otherwise, dozens of Russian tanks and artillery systems, fully ready for attack, are located in Akhalgori district, some 35 kilometers (22 miles) from Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. And nobody knows who will pull the trigger first.

Provocations are already being reported, not just on the border with the breakaway provinces but also in the partly Armenian populated province of Samtskhe-Javakheti Region of Georgia, as mentioned here

At the same time, however, the Ministry of Internal Affairs has intensified its efforts to expose the enemies of the country and is performing the functions of the special services as well. On January 21 two locals of Armenian nationality, Griogor Minasyan and Sarkis Akobjanyan, were detained. The two live in the Samtskhe-Javakheti Region of Georgia, which is densely populated by ethnic Armenians. According to official information released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, "they were detained [for] forming an armed unit, its preparation, and espionage" (www.presa.ge, January 23, 2009). The detention of Minasyan and Akobjanyan was the second arrest on charges of espionage in the last two years in Georgia. In September 2006 Georgian Special Forces detained four Russian officers of the Russian Military Headquarters in Georgia. The detentions received widespread coverage in the media, and an attempt to turn the arrests into a public relations show, was soon followed by a rapid deterioration in relations between Russia and Georgia, which ended in the massive deportation of Georgians from Russia and the suspension of air connections between the two countries (Arsenali, February 21, 2009).

Other provocations may be political, as reported here

Bakradze Warns Russia May Try to Incite Chaos in Georgia Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 27 Feb.'09 / 19:13 Parliamentary Chairman, Davit Bakradze, said on February 27, that resumption of large-scale military hostilities was not likely, but warned that Russia might try to incite chaos within Georgia to achieve its goal. “Russia’s indirect involvement in the country’s internal politics and inciting internal political instability is more dangerous than direct military aggression, because eventually the instability and chaos can be more effective rather than tanks for replacing the authorities,” he told a group of students at a meeting in the Tbilisi-based Caucasus School of Business.

All the old politicians and the young ones who have fallen out with Saakashvili have formed opposition parties, all of which are calling for demonstrations in April, but they haven't agreed on the start date of the demonstrations, let alone whether they will demonstrate "together", so what hope of a common policy or plan to oust Saakashvili and form a coherent government.  Nino Burjanadze (a rumoured favourite of Bush for a replacement) is now deciding she will go back into politics instead of running a think tank.  Not much signs of any thinking coming out from her.  For a further character assassination read here, where she is described as "nye ryba, nye miaso"*.  As an Iron Lady of Georgia (she admires Margaret Thatcher), she is a failure as she has turned too many times to be credible.

But then comes more information about the plan of attack.

Pavel Felgenhauer – Plan of Georgian Occupation Worked Out in the Kremlin
February 24th, 2009  quoted   from here

Plan of Georgian occupation is worked out in the Kremlin, according to which Russian military forces will enter Tbilisi from Tskhinvali and Akhalgori and occupy North part of the city.

Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer stated about it in interview to the paper 'Kviris Palitra'.
According to his information, the second military campaign will start with minor incident, while Russian soldier dies and it will be used as reason by Moscow to start war against Georgia.
'Invasion of Tbilisi is planned. North side of Tbilisi, as Moscow considers that it is not necessary to invade the centre. According to our information, Russian army will occupy Vasiani, then – aviation factory and international airport. These objects are important, as Tbilisi stays without air aid if Americans desire to help you. Invasion will take place from Tskhinvali and Akhalgori and everything will be over by it', - Felgenhauer stated.
The Russian expert says that there will be invasion from Abkhazia and the West Georgia will be occupied.  Military expert says he has relations with his old fellow Grigory Karasin, who is foreign Minster of Russia and other military and political high rank officials. He also states that Georgian government has information about the plan.
Felgenhauer states that this war with Georgia will be profitable for Russia to cover the existing financial depression in Russia. 'If war starts in Georgia, main goal will be to change Saakashvili's regime. It will automatically cause change in orientation. It doesn't matter who is brought by the Kremlin – Abashidze** or other. The Kremlin understands that they have to defeat armed forces of Georgia first and foremost. It is not so easy for Russians'.

* Russian expression translated 'neither fish nor meat'.  No third option as in English: neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring.

**Aslan Abashidze was the previous leader of the Adjara Autonomous Republic in Georgia, till Saakashvili kicked him out and he went to Moscow.

Day out to inspect war damage

Well actually it was a visit to a sugar factory, but it was  situated near Gori.  I had the bright idea of making a video of the energy audit, we are going to do there,  so we went to do a recce of what  to film.  The location caused a certain drama with the international engineer we were going to use, who preferred to believe what it said on the British Embassy website, rather than us, who had actually visited the plant and knew whether it was risky or not.  Why he couldn't just say he didn't want to come before Christmas I don't know.

We could see that reconstruction was going pretty fast. The bridge over the river at Gori has been replaced by a rather bouncy steel framed bridge and a new motorway is being built between Gori and Tbilisi.  The official reason is that it is the new "Silk Road" linking Baku and Poti on the Black Sea for the transit of goods for the region.  I assume it is US money and that is why they are building a road, rather than expanding the railway line, which would be more green.  So next time the Russians visit Gori they will find it even quicker to get to Tbilisi.

The barracks at the Military Base just outside Gori are being repaired after bombing:

Various little villages of boxes like this have sprung by the side of the road.  The boxes look rather pretty, but don't have bathrooms or toilets or heating.  One can say they are definitely better than tents for the winter.  Their cost per sq m is about the same as the posh normal housing built in Tbilisi, which comes with plumbing at least, even if not with heating or bathrooms (for some reason these are considered extras).  Some people are remarking that builders and others are profiteering from other people's misery.

     

Of course the view of the Caucasus mountains is a compensation, but judging by the usual tendencies, the IDPs will be there a long time.

 

Technorati tags: Gori, Georgia, war, IDPs

And perhaps as well?

If one swallow doesn't make a summer how many swallows do?

Rumours are circulating about another war.  First just one person in our office (who was the first with the news of the August war) then today a quite unconnected source. 

A plan for war is given as the reason for the build up of Russian forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Of course this is a provocation, but as long as they stay there it isn't so much of a problem.

But no, there seems to be the idea that if Saakashvili has another go, it will distract from the 7th November opposition demonstration in remembrance of last year's confrontation. 

Of course it's all speculation.  Let's hope it is all wrong.  You would think that the Russians had enough on their plate at the moment, what with the oil price and the stock exchange collapse. And reorganising the military.

So  I'm glad I'm leaving for a bit.  

And just to add fuel to the fire, here is the latest from www.civil.ge.

Today I heard a rumour about replacement of the Prime Minister.

EU Observers

Not much time to blog at the moment, a sudden rush of work.  So I am just quoting some extracts from EU Observer which seems to have a lot of coverage of Georgian issues at the moment.  So it's not surprising the Geneva talks failed.

[Comment] A mission for all of Georgia  7 October 2008
Joseph Stalin is probably turning in his grave as police from the European Union patrol the streets of his home town, Gori, Georgia. The European Union's decision on 15 September to deploy a EU monitoring mission to this part of the former Soviet Union is indeed a significant step. And French President Nicolas Sarkozy, currently holding the rotating EU presidency, has to some extent been justified in heralding Russia's acquiescence to the mission as a clear victory for European diplomacy.

But the constraints the EU faces are evident as well. Sarkozy felt he needed President Dmitry Medvedev's approval to deploy in a country in Europe's new neighbourhood with its own NATO and EU membership aspirations. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that the EU will not be welcome in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, entities Russia now recognises as independent states. For now the observers will be sent to confirm Russia's withdrawal from Georgia, particularly the towns of Poti and Senaki, and villages between Gori and the South Ossetian administrative border. Russia has pledged to withdraw by 10 October.

A good start, but not nearly enough. Member states are going to have to push Russia much harder to guarantee that the mission will be able to work throughout Georgia, including in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

If the EU is unable to act in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and if Russia completes its final withdrawal from the rest of Georgia, the mission's futility will rapidly become obvious. EU observers will be overseeing a fairly mundane return to normal life in a handful of towns and villages in western and central Georgia: including the ongoing return of some 127,000 displaced persons, reconstruction of their homes, and handout of humanitarian aid. Monitors will be unarmed and unable to intervene if any violence occurs. The best the EU's personnel can do is take testimony of what happened during the actual conflict and begin determining what crimes occurred. But a month or two should suffice for such work. Thereafter, the EU's presence will be superfluous in those areas.

and then some extracts from

Saakashvili saved Georgia from coup, former Putin aide says 14 October
The Georgian president had no other option than to attack South Ossetia in order to save his country from a Russian coup, Andrei Illarionov, former advisor to Vladimir Putin has said in an interview with EUobserver on the margins of the "European Resource Bank" conference which took place in Tbilisi last weekend (9-12 October).

.......

The unilateral recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by the Russian authorities seems to be a "plan B" that Moscow is not genuinely happy with, Mr Illarionov says.

"It appears that plan A was to disorganize the Geogian government and society with some kind of civil war, coup d'etat or revolution, with the participation of Ossetians and Georgians within Georgia to change the regime."

"But since Georgian troops went into Tskhinvali and were able for a number of days to keep the Russian army from moving into Georgia, it was enough time to relocate the rest of the army from the West of the country to defend Tbilisi, to attract world-wide attention, to 'wake up' the public and politicians around the world and to mobilise international support."

"After a few days it became evident that plan A, to organize a revolution or civil war failed. The Russian authorities were forced to move to plan B. But it was a big frustration for the Russian authorities. When you hear bad words used by the Russian officials for Mr Saakashvili, it is just expression of their deep frustration that Mr Saakashvili was able to destroy their well-prepared plan A."

"Plan B was that Russia is trying to defend the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This was made public only a few days after the war and ultimately they have chosen to pretend that they are in favour of their independence. But it is in deep contradiction with the position the Russian authorities have kept for so long, on non-recognition of Chechnya, Kosovo, Nagorno-Karabakh, Northern Cyprus, Transdnistria."

"The last thing that Russia needs is these [Georgian] breakaway regions. It's a big problem for the Russian government. It's a serious financial drain, they're not quite sustainable and there's a big criminal problem as well ... All of a sudden you have tens of thousands armed people who can easily enter Russian territory. It's an incredible headache."

Vandalised EU flag tells story of Georgia conflict  15 October
As EU leaders in Brussels meet to debate Russia relations and diplomats in Geneva discuss Georgian security, one Polish aid worker aims to remind politicians of the stark realities of the conflict via a vandalised flag.
............
"The Russians attacked the university in Gori, which was shelled with high-calibre ordnance," he said. "When we entered we saw fires, books scattered everywhere. Then we noticed how the Russian soldiers had attacked the university flag and the EU flag, which was full of holes from bullets and bayonets. This symbol of the EU countries and of Georgian aspirations was an object of direct physical hatred."

The medical worker picked up the flag and aims to pass it on to European Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering in the coming days, to show the war was not just a scrap over bits of Georgian land, but a clash between two bordering ideologies and "empires" - the EU and Russia.

"The parliament should keep this as a sort of museum piece," Mr Wlaszczyk said. "It shows, among certain parts of Russian society, the Russian attitude toward the EU. EU countries should realise that this is being seen as a conflict between two empires."

Based on first-hand witness accounts from Georgian refugees and the wounds of patients examined at his hospital, the aid worker accused Russian forces of planting booby traps in Georgian homes as they retreated, some of which were concealed in children's toys.

But his most vivid memory is the aftermath of a Russian air strike on a kindergarten in Gori, which caused the roof to collapse.



Technorati Tags: Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia

This must be the saddest news

The Tbilisi Times (not a paper I have heard of before but it can be found here) reports:

17 Georgian unknown soldiers were buried in a communal grave in Tbilisi on August 30. Shalva Dolidze, Commander of 41st battalion of the 4th brigade, was also buried beside the communal grave.
The report says that "some" of the 145 Georgian soldiers killed in the war were unidentified. 
The only way that I can imagine that these days soldiers are not identified is that there was not much of them left.  But surely someone must be looking for them? 

Civil.ge reports the numbers here:

The officially registered number of Georgian citizens killed during active hostilities is 370, as of September 15, according to information posted on the Georgian Defense Ministry's website.

The civilian death toll is 188; 168 Defense Ministry personnel are listed as dead and 14 from the Interior Ministry.

According to the Ministry of Healthcare and Social Welfare, the number of civilians killed in the war may change after the Georgian side gains access to and inspects the areas currently occupied by Russian troops.

In an earlier report:

Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch (HRW) representatives said on September 11 that civilians killed in South Ossetia numbered “fewer than 100.”

Tatiana Lokshina, a Russian researcher for HRW who visited the region, said trips to a hospital and cemetery, and conversations with residents had failed to corroborate claims by Russian and South Ossetian authorities that thousands of civilians had been killed in the region, The Associated Press reported.

Initially, Russian officials claimed that 2,000 civilians had been killed in South Ossetia. In late August, a representative of the Russian General Prosecutor’s Office said 133 deaths had been officially registered at that time.

I always thought it was suspicious that the Russian came out almost immediately with the number of 1400 killed, but only hours later raised it to 1500. Almost like they had a press release already.

Has anyone seen recent figures for the number of refugees now in North Ossetia or how many Russian soldiers were killed?