Wu Wei

We seek it here, we seek it there

According to the Guardian here:

But Ukraine blamed Russia. Its state energy firm, Naftogaz, said there had not been enough co-ordination over the routes chosen for the gas and the volumes shipped. "This seriously violates the established practice of reliable functioning of the gas transit system," Naftogaz said.

Ukrainian officials said Gazprom had "deliberately" sent the gas by a route that would have meant switching off gas to Ukrainian consumers in the east of the country. Instead of supplying gas via the traditional route, through Ukraine's Belgorod and Rostov region, it had been sent on a bypass route which would paralyse supplies to the towns of Donetsk and Luhansk. "This is just provocation against Ukraine," said Bohdan Sokolovsky, Ukraine's commissioner for energy security.

Now why would Russia care about Donetsk and Luhansk?  Because they belong to the part of Russia that usually supports Russia.  This forces the European-leaning Ukrainian government to choose between supplying Europe and cutting off the east of Ukraine, or keeping the east happy and cutting off Europe.  Fighting the coming election by gas flows? Looks like more mischief to me.

There's another lot of nasty stuff from the Ukrainians about Nazi tactics over the siege of Leningrad, none of which is going to help deal with the commercial issues of the gas price, which needs to be settled before things can get back to normal.

The Europeans get involved

What the previous post illustrates, (and especially the Ukrainian text quoted in the comment by blairs) is that dispatching of gas and information about dispatching of gas between Russia and Ukraine does not operate according to the sort of regulations that are promulgated throughout Europe, as part of the developing European gas market.

Gas transmission in Europe is subject to an agreed Gas Grid Code, so that gas is not turned off or down without prior notification and procedures for turning on are specified.  Of course mistakes can happen especially when there are political pressures on the one hand, but also a desire to get things moving again.  But operators used to working in a rational technical world would help out their colleagues. 

Maybe the European observers will make some recommendations about this for future reliability?  Are they going to make suggestions about a preferred route for the flow of European gas, when Ukrainian gas is turned off next winter?  With remote reading of the flows at the measuring stations so that the European monitors can stay at home and give us proper reports on what is happening? 

Nobody seems yet to be commenting on the precedent that this sets for future energy supply.  Perhaps we could expect new monitors to reveal the progress on repairs to the oil pipeline which supplies Lithuania, closed for a couple of years (?) for "repairs" and forcing the Lithuanians to import oil for Mazeikiu Nafta oil refinery. 

Gas with a life of its own (apparently)

In an article here about the current attempts at disinformation in the gas war, the Jamestown Foundation points out the following:

Disinformation operation two—Ukraine turned off the valves on the pipeline
preventing deliveries of Russian gas to EU countries. Gazprom deputy CEO
Alexander Medvedev, who is also a member of the coordinating committee of RUE (RosUkrEnergo) told a
press conference in London on January 6 that it was Ukraine that had closed down
the transit of gas to Europe and that Russia played no role whatsoever in this
(Vedomosti, January 6).

The following day Oleh Dubyna, the head
of Naftohaz, called Medvedev’s statement “absurd” and pointed out that all the
gas cutoff valves were located on the Russian side of the border. Dubyna
produced maps of the pipeline system, which clearly proved his assertion (UNIAN
press agency January 8).

Then, to make matters worse for Gazprom and
Putin’s disinformation operation, the world press reported on January 8 that
“Russia said on Thursday it would restore gas supplies to Europe through
Ukraine, once international monitors were in place…” (Ukrayinska
Pravda, January 8). If Gazprom’s original claim that Ukraine had shut down
the flow of gas to Europe were true, how could Russia now be ready to resume
shipments of gas that it claimed not to have shut down in the first place? Would
Russian troops move into Ukrainian territory, occupy the pipelines in that
country, and open the nonexistent valves?

How is it that the Putin, Medvedev and Gazprom think they can get away with such rubbish?  Doesn't anyone tell them they are constantly shooting themselves in the foot? Or is that just a silly question when you have tame press and a tame public.  However, a tame public is not usually to be found amongst people who are cold and who are losing their jobs.

Just at the moment, the next issue seems to be "hunt the gas".  The gas left Russia for Ukraine, but hasn't been seen since, and can't be found even by the EU monitors. 

More on the disinformation about middleman RosUkrEnergo is also provided. On the one hand this shadowy organisation was introduced at Russian insistance, and the Ukrainians (particularly Timoshenko) have been trying to get rid of it ever since.  On the other hand Putin claims he knows nothing about it.  What, sign such an important contract, without finding out who the other side is?  Is he stupid? maybe not but he's creating a suitable impression.

Top 10 uncovered bribes

Kyivpost has an article on this, where some 1,500 public servants took bribes in 2008, totaling Hr 91.1 million, the Ministry of Interior Affairs announced on Dec. 19, almost triple last year's totals.

The bribes ranged from $42 million to $20,000, for the top 10 "uncovered". Who knows about those not uncovered?

I post this not because I am surprised but to pose the question: will the size of bribes required fall now?  They have been rising for several years along with the various bubbles, but perhaps the bribe bubble has also burst?

More Europe

Ukraine tries again.

The FT reports Yulia Timoshenko as saying:

Today, countries that once chose to remain outside the euro – Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, even Switzerland – are reconsidering. Hungary, Poland and others wanting to join the euro are committed to redoubling their efforts. As usual with European crises, the best solution for Europe is more Europe. That “more Europe” also needs to include every European nation.

Before the big enlargement in 2004, it was noticeable how enthusiasm for Europe is stronger when outside, then a healthy scepticism set in, after entry. 

Interesting how the pattern repeats with the Euro, for those outside (even for some Brits now, Euro entry is discussable again.

Read the rest of her speech here: 

Menu bad translations

These are always hilarious, but Neeka has some specially good ones here from a restaurant menu in Kyiv.

I can't wait to try "narrow-minded bried mushrooms"  (actually it's not even spell-checked and has come out as narrov-mindecl)

It's anyone's guess what these are:

• seat-fich
• Sheat-bish Steak
• Fisher cheat-fish

Even the photos don't help to identify things. 

I seem to remember I've been there, and this restaurant might actually be one of a chain.  So you'd think they could manage to find one competent English speaker or a dictionary. 

On the other hand perhaps they attract customers this way.

Technorati Tags: menu, translations, Kiev

Greek myths and more

An interesting article from the always thoughtful Wilhelm Connander's blog here.

We're an intellectual lot in our project, so our conversation on the trip to Batumi turned to Greek myths, as a variation from the possibility of jokes about a Greek, a Georgian and a Brit and other less intellectual matters.

It's a long time since I read any Greek myths so I find it hard to relate them to places outside Greece. But here we are in the land of the Golden Fleece and Jason, who I have now learnt is called Yasson by Greeks and Georgians, (and probably everyone else but Brits, who manage to invent their own pronunciation rather than use that of the natives). I forgot to post the photo of the statue of Medea and the Golden Fleece on my posts about Batumi (here and here) so here it is now. (photo by sLENGfJES)



The fleece here looks more like it still has a lanb inside it. It doesn't look so happy hanging by its tail. It hasn't yet got as far as being used for filtering gold dust out of a stream, which is where the story of the golden fleece apparently has its origin. For more on that myth and Georgia see here. The ancient country of Colchis, home of the Golden Fleece, was located in Western Georgia.

But back to Prometheus. In Greek mythology, Prometheus, is the Titan chiefly honored for stealing fire from the gods. As punishment he was chained to a rock in the Caucasus, with an eagle eating his always regenerating liver. (Is that the first artificial use of stem cells?)

However, finally getting to the point, I learnt from Wilhelm about another Prometheus:

The appealing Prometheus myth became the theme for the Ukrainian national poet's, Taras Shevchenko (1814-1861), epos Kavkaz (1845). The father of Ukrainian literature wrote the work in memory of a close friend - Yakiv de Balman - who had fallen in Russian service in the Caucasus that year. Its edge is however not directed against the Chechens, who had killed his friend, but against the injustices of the Russian empire in denying oppressed peoples their freedom. What today is perceived as expressions of budding Ukrainian nationalism and a strive for independence from Russia, to the contrary encompasses a more general vision of liberty and justice to all nationalities set to carry the burden of the Tsarist yoke.

He explains how the myth has also been used in the Balkans for the liberation struggle against the Ottomans and in the interwar years with Pilsudski's (Polish) vision of an Intermarum, a federation of smaller states bent on containing Russia or the Soviet Union. The Intermarum was intended to stretch between the Baltic and the Black Seas. Looking backwards this obviously harks back to Greater Lithuania, which stretched between those two seas. At its greatest size, in the 15th century, it was the largest state in Europe.

Looking forwards, it seems this could be an ambitious aim of the European Neighbourhood Policy, currently encompassing those former Soviet countries wanting eventually to join the EU: Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and those new member states interested in the fate of their external neighbours: Poland, the Baltic States, Romania and Bulgaria.

Read the rest of Wilhelm's article for his prognosis.

Technorati Tags: Prometheus, Golden Fleece, Colchis, Intermarum, Lithuania, Poland, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine

Give us back Simferopol

BBC World tries hard but doesn't always succeed.

This morning it continued with its support of Georgia against Russia. The reporter who got into Abkhazia described the "frozen conflict" there as the conflict in the remotest part of Europe which nobody knew and everyone had forgotten. If I wasn't in Georgia myself and knew a bit more about what was going on, then it would be easier to think "let sleeping dogs lie", then.

However, now that Luzhkov is saying "give us back Simferopol" it is really clear what Russia's strategy is in its neighbourhood. This despite all the international agreements covering Russia/ Ukraine borders.

It is obvious that NATO does not allow countries to join if they still have unresolved border conflicts. Especially if they are unresolved with Russia. So Russia has an interest to make sure the conflicts are not resolved and even create new ones, which can be dragged out through international courts if necessary for however long it takes, without any fighting.

So we know what to expect while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova try to get into Nato.

Yushchenko respectful of Tymoshenko?

In yesterday's article on Ukraine headed "IS THE PARTY OF REGIONS SLIDING INTO CRISIS?" in the Jamestown Foundation's Newsletter, the following paragraph appears:

President Viktor Yushchenko has only led in the polls in 2005. Since 2006 Yushchenko has been in third place behind Viktor Yanukovych and Tymoshenko respectfully. Yushchenko’s ratings temporarily increased to second place after he dissolved parliament in April 2007. 

I haven't seen much sign of that respect.  I guess it's a just a slip.  Still the discussion of Yanukovych's position was interesting.  You can find the rest here.

Technorati tags: Ukraine, Yushchenko

Anyone know a reliable gas supplier?

Pardon me, but is this the same Gazprom who was protesting last week against the new EU measures, insisting that it is the reliable gas supplier of Europe? Now it is threatening LOUDLY in public to cut off gas to Ukraine (and thus inevitably to Europe eventually) just as a slightly pro-western government might be formed? If it really was a commercial debt there would be no special need to publicise it just now, would there?

Russia just doesn't get it, does it? That actions to neighbours speak louder than reassurances to us.

And if the Baltic States and Poland continue warning about this behaviour and its long term consequences, and the EU does not act? Gasprom will learn it can freeze Germany into submission as well.

Thank God for Gazprom. Even more work for us energy policy guys. It's an ill wind .... :)