Latest from Yulia Latynina in the Moscow Times here:
The Kremlin's behavior is driven by both rational and irrational motives. An irrational motive is Putin's stated desire to hang Saakashvili by the balls. A rational motive is the desire to convince the world that Saakashvili has already hanged himself by the balls.
"Caucasus 2009" is strikingly similar to the Russian exercises that preceded the August 2008 war with Georgia. The smell of war is once again in the air. Counterterrorism operations have been instituted in the Prielbrusiye region on the Russian-Georgian border, many people have been evacuated from the region and Russia has beefed up its forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Like deja vu, the Kremlin is again accusing Georgia of aggression, and yet it is Moscow that has insisted that all observers from the United Nations and Europe leave the region to remove unnecessary witnesses to Russia's planned aggression. It would be difficult to label these moves as simply blackmail. Russia is mobilizing for war.
The Kremlin's foreign policy is driven by one basic principle: It will pursue an aggressive, hostile policy as long as it believes it can get away with it.
Joe Biden is coming to Tbilisi between July 22 and 24. After that there's a clear run for Putin unless Sarkozy has any plans to visit as well.
