Wu Wei

And this year in Georgia we have ...

From the Jamestown Foundation archive:

7 May 2009  Increasing risk of Russian Intervention in Georgia

12 May 2009 Radical Georgian Opposition Considers Shift in Tactics

21 May 2009 Radical Opposition Threatens to Disrupt Georgian Transportation

29 May 2009 Moscow Playing with Multiple Options on Black Sea Pipelines

2 June 2009 U.N. Secretary-General Revises Report on Abkhazia under Russian Pressure

12 June 2009 Moscow Ready to Scuttle U.N. and OSCE Missions in Georgia

18 June 2009 Russian Military Chief Accuses Georgia of Preparing Aggression

Sounds familiar doesn't it?  

Similarities with last year                                   
Disillusionment with Saakashvili                         
Disorganisation of the Opposition (and now more angry)                     
Russian military activity in breakaway areas (and increased  informal militias)  
Ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Ineffectiveness of UN and OSCE monitoring  (no monitoring in breakaway areas)                                     
Russian military manoeuvres in the North Caucasus again in July
Holiday season coming up

Extra disruptive factors
Global financial crisis distracting the rest of the world
Sever financial trouble at home in Russia needs adventures abroad as distraction
President Obama still supporting Georgia even though Europe has gone cool
NATO manoeuvres held in Georgia
More trouble in Moldova and Ukraine
Increasing troubles in North Caucasus this month
Awareness of the lack of readiness of Russian army

From the 16 June Jamestown article we have the following:

The most dangerous period within which a new full-scale war with Georgia might occur will be from July 10 until after President Barack Obama visits Moscow in August, while the invasion forces are already deployed and poised for action, under the cover of "Kavkaz-2009." If Russian forces go into action, their objectives will be decisive.

The author of the 16 June article, Pavel Felgenhauer, continues that the Russian strategic objectives will be:

1. Regime change and the forceful demilitarization of Georgia, fully dismantling and disarming the regime-loyal Georgian army, border guards and special police forces.

2. Establishing a secure land corridor linking Russia to its strategically important military base in Armenia.

3. Transforming Georgia into a loose confederation of its many semi-independent regions with their regional king-pins, with a weak central government and without any national military-security forces. Russian military forces will be permanently stationed within the Georgian confederation, ensuring influence, control of energy supply corridors to the Caspian and Central Asia, and ending the country's aspirations to join NATO.

The first objective will hardly be difficult given the performance of the Georgian army last year, since the global financial crisis has meant that it could not be re-equipped and it can hardly be much better trained now.  While the Russian army was not better equipped or much better disciplined, it comes with bigger numbers and fire power.

The second objective is essential, as currently not only is there no land access, but Georgia also controls the supply of gas to Armenia, and we all know that gas can be used as a political weapon.

The ease of achieving the third objective was amply demonstrated last August when Georgia was effective cut in two after the advance up to the main east-west highway at Gori, which also houses a large military base.  The advance on Tbilisi will be aided by the new motorway being constructed as part of Georgia's ambition to be a transportation transit corridor, to which it is dedicating most of its development resources, without considering the risks of putting all its eggs in one basket.

Felgenhauer continues that the Russian operational objectives will be to:

1. To engage and fully decimate the most capable Georgian government forces (artillery and special forces, including police special forces) in decisive battles.

2. To isolate Georgia from any possible external aid by taking under control its ports, major roads and airfields. One of the prime military targets of any future campaign could be the cluster of airfields and airstrips east of Tbilisi (Vaziani).

3. When the regular Georgian army, police and security forces are smashed, the existing political internal tensions could precipitate the disintegration of the present unified Georgian state. The international community may eventually leave Russia to manage the ensuing mess.

Russia managed to bomb Poti and the military airports last year without any problem. Felgenhauer has already described here in February the plan for taking Tbilisi so it is already well known.

And what else is reassuring?

With its present array of weapons, training and capabilities, the Georgian forces do not appear sufficient to deter Russia. The international community is doing almost nothing, apparently hoping that marginalizing Georgia and charming Russia is the best possible policy. The U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs Philip H. Gordon has confirmed that the U.S. will not provide Georgia with any defensive or other weapons (RIA Novosti, June 9). This development has been eagerly awaited in Moscow.

And I forgot: this year we don't have any distractions like the Olympic Games.  Luckily Joe Biden is coming to Georgia for 20-24 July.  That should give us till the end of July at least.

If that's not enough for you, I recommend this week's International Crisis Group report here, encouragingly titled "Georgia-Russia: Still Insecure and Dangerous".  That's only South Ossetia, apparently there's worse to come on Abkhazia.

This time last year in Georgia ....

From the Jamestown Foundation Archives (EuroAsia Daily Monitor except where marked otherwise)

1 May 2008  ANNEXATION AND MILITARIZATION OF ABKHAZIA CONTINUE APACE

2 May 2008 RUSSIA REINFORCES FORCES IN ABKHAZIA AS A POSSIBILITY OF ARMED CONFLICT LOOMS

5 May 2008  RUSSIA'S STRANGE "PEACEKEEPING" OPERATION IN ABKHAZIA

5 May 2008  RUSSIA DOUBLING ITS TROOPS IN GEORGIA'S ABKHAZIA REGION

6 May 2008  INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS PASSIVE AS RUSSIA MOVES TROOPS INTO ABKHAZIA

7 May 2008  THE WEST RESPONDS WEAKLY TO RUSSIAN CHALLENGES IN GEORGIA: PART I

8 May 2008 THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART II

9 May 2008 THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART III

12 May 2008  WILL PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV'S FIRST CRISIS BE GEORGIA?

15 May 2008 RUSSIAN JOURNALISTS USED AS CHANNEL FOR TBILISI-MOSCOW CONTACTS

16 May 2008 U.N. RESOLUTION ON ABKHAZIA SHOWS WHO'S WHO ON ETHNIC CLEANSING

19 May 2008 GEORGIA HOLDS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN A DANGEROUS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

21 May 2008  MOSCOW ENCOURAGES NORTH-SOUTH OSSETIAN IRREDENTISM AGAINST GEORGIA

22 May 2008 A GEORGIAN CHARM OFFENSIVE IN MOSCOW

3 June 2008  RUSSIA DEPLOYS RAILWAY TROOPS TO ABKHAZIA 

4 June 2008  EUROAPPEASEMENT: THE EU'S ANSWER TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA

13 June 2008   SOLANA RETURNS EMPTY-HANDED FROM ABKHAZIA

13 June 2008  MEDVEDEV CONTINUES AND ESCALATES PUTIN'S HARD LINE ON GEORGIA

19 June 2008  MOSCOW READY FOR MAJOR CONFRONTATIONS WITH PRO-WESTERN GEORGIA AND UKRAINE

19 June 2008  GEORGIAN OPPOSITION RIVEN BY MULTIPLE SPLITS AS NEW PARLIAMENT OPENS

23 June 2008  GAZPROM'S MOVE ON ABKHAZIA: MORE REASONS FOR GEORGIA TO BLOCK RUSSIA'S WTO ACCESSION

26 June 2008  THE WEST IS CONFUSED ABOUT WHAT TO DO IN ABKHAZIA

27 June 2008  GEORGIA HIGH ON THE EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT AGENDA

30 June 2008  GEORGIA LAUNCHES A THREE-TRACK DIPLOMATIC EFFORT ON ABKHAZIA

7 July 2008   GUAM SUMMIT HELD AMID ADVERSE TRENDS ON ENERGY AND THE FROZEN CONFLICTS

11 July 2008  "DE-RECOGNITION" OF GEORGIA'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY DISQUALIFIES RUSSIA AS "PEACEKEEPER"

17 July 2008  RUSSIA IS STRONGER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE

17 July 2008 Russia Holds Military Exercises in the North Caucasus  (North Caucasus Analysis)

18 JULY 2008  MOSCOW, SOKHUMI STOP GERMAN PLAN BEFORE THE START

22 JULY 2008  STEINMEIER'S PLAN ON ABKHAZIA: BENIGN INTENTIONS, LIMITED RELEVANCE, BLOCKED BY MOSCOW

23 JULY 2008 POST-MORTEMS ON THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

24 JULY 2008 GEORGIA, U.S. ADDRESSING GAPS IN THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

31 JULY 2008 RUSSIAN RAILROAD TROOPS COMPLETE MISSION IN ABKHAZIA

1 AUGUST 2008 BERLIN CONSULTATIONS ON ABKHAZIA DERAILED

4 AUGUST 2008 MOSCOW ORCHESTRATES WAR SCARE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

7 AUGUST 2008 OSSETIAN SEPARATISTS ARE PROVOKING A MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERVENTION

8 AUGUST 2008 THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW'S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

THE WAR HAS STARTED.

Did you see it coming?

What is a related post?

As recommended by Typepad here, I have installed the LinkWithin Widget which says it indexes your blog, finds related  posts and provides links at the bottom of the post. 

Certainly it does provide links, and even picks up an image from the post to show, which is rather good. Users claim it significantly increases pageviews. But its idea of what is a related post is rather bizarre. You would think it would use the tags I put on each post rather than guess.  I've left it installed for humour rather than usefulness.

Feel free to leave a comment on any page, about the appropriateness of what it suggests is related.

Not energy efficient but good for sunbathing

This photo was found by one of my Georgian colleagues when he was looking for pictures of double glazing.

A bit of bother on the Cowley Rd: time for the boys on bikes

Heavy duty policing on the Cowley Rd:  3 lads in blue on bikes call in further reinforcements on bikes. 

 

Quirky Vilnius n+1

This advert for beer warns you  that alcohol can damage your health, your family and the public good.

Nevertheless it is advertising 3 litre towers of beer on tap:  if you order the 3 l tower and a pizza, 30% off the pizza; if you order a second  tower and a pizza, 40% off the pizza. Attractive for the visiting lager louts on Ryanair no doubt.

Rain, pain and news from the Cowley Road

Sorry about the slowdown in posting.  In England I suffered from the weather (raining, thundering and hailstoning all the time) and dentistry (one extraction and one filling with another booked).  As a result I spent quite a bit of time hibernating and reading novels, which makes a change. 

Although previously I was not too impressed with Georgian dentistry (the one filling I had left me with a swollen jaw for a week, from the anaesthetic) after British dentistry I had the same swelling and pain not to mention the pain of a bill 4 times as big.  No wonder I put off going to the dentist for 4 years in England.

Otherwise I can report on new restaurants in Cowley Road.   The Santorini, a Greek restaurant recycled from a previously "lebanese-turkish" restaurant, where we had reasonable Greek food at 5pm (when most restaurants aren't usually open in Britain) and sat for a long and comfortable time as if we were in a Greek cafe, instead of being hassled out into the rain. 

Bee and I decided to have a girlie cocktail on Saturday night as she was bored doing revision for A levels and I was bored with work.  So we went to the recycled Cafe Tarifa which used to be the rather expensive and pointless Organic Burger Cafe.  Cafe Tarifa doesn't really know what sort of a place it is, but it has sort of Moroccan decor.  No cafe is allowed to have seating on the pavement (which is a bit narrow anyway), so we sat in the window, as the next best thing, as the it was one of those sliding folding jobs.  This was one of the few dry days, but even that was spoilt when at 10pm or some really early hour, the cafe management were forced to close the windows to prevent noise escaping onto the pavement.  Hello, this is the Cowley Road, people make noise on the pavement all the time. 

So we retired to the garden which was tiny, completely full and making just as much noise for the people living in houses overlooking the garden.  Still it was warm and outdoors, we could just about pretend we were still in Morocco.  Some more cocktails later, we ended up in fits of giggles as she told me about her current boyfriend (a new topic of conversation for us).  This discussion caused much hilarity as he was revealed as having the opposite politics, ambitions and values from us, though he apparently had a single mum slogging away in the city, so we decided he might be OK. 

As we staggered back along the Cowley Road, a voice called hello, as he rushed past.  Though I missed the sight of "the boyfriend", it was enough to send us into another fit of giggles at the thought of the introduction that might have been.

While rushing round doing last minute shopping I spotted the distinctive Oxford pubstops map done in the style of the London underground.  So I brought that back to Tbilisi to add a bit of culture to our office.

You can see the map here.

No prizes for guessing the "line" with the most pubs.

Economic development under Saakashvili

An interesting (and unfavourable) article on Georgia's economic development under Saakashvili has been produced here.

One author is Managing Director of Salford Georgia, a company linked to Badri Patarkatsishvili, and the other Chairman of the Board, President and CEO of Metromedia-Group a Georgian telecomms company.  One may think therefore that perhaps they are not unbiassed, or have some axe to grind.  Nevertheless most of the things they mention I can either vouch for myself, or have been told about by people I can trust to know. 

Certainly there is rather little progress to show for the apparently booming economy.

Well worth a read.

Moving on

Blogging is a bit chaotic at the moment.  Finally got home to get my teeth fixed, then off to Tbilisi, Montenegro, Cyprus, Tbilisi and Oxford again at the end of July for the packing up and moving to Vilnius.