Wu Wei

Terms of Reference for gas monitoring (and who buys the network?)

Abdymok provides a copy of the Terms of Reference for the Joint Ukrainian/Russian and EU Monitors here (letter with signatures) and here (actual text).

The letter says that the terms of reference are "for resuming the natural gas deliveries from the Russian Federation through Ukraine to the European Union".

It seems that apart from a start date (from immediate effect) there is no finish date.  Evidently nobody thought this would drag on and as soon as the monitors began monitoring everything would become clear and gas would flow.

Not so, as it turns out.  So how long will the monitors stay there?  It doesn't say.  Their costs are paid for by the countries sending them.  The Terms of Reference guarantee the right of access on the territory of Russia and Ukraine to the metering stations, and the right of access to data. 

How long will this go on? Will it become an annual event?  If the Ukrainian gas network gets sold to the Russians will it still stand, when the next dispute come up? 

Is this really a way to ensure security of gas supply to the EU? 

Now the EU is telling EU gas companies to sue Russia.  It will be an interesting question to see in which jurisdiction they need to sue.  With both Russia and Ukraine strapped for cash, will this help?  Or will EU companies accept the Ukrainian gas network as compensation?  Now that would really put the cat among the pigeons. 

But it might be a reasonable solution for the EU. Then Russia and Ukraine could have their annual battle about prices and the EU could share the gas as necessary.

We seek it here, we seek it there

According to the Guardian here:

But Ukraine blamed Russia. Its state energy firm, Naftogaz, said there had not been enough co-ordination over the routes chosen for the gas and the volumes shipped. "This seriously violates the established practice of reliable functioning of the gas transit system," Naftogaz said.

Ukrainian officials said Gazprom had "deliberately" sent the gas by a route that would have meant switching off gas to Ukrainian consumers in the east of the country. Instead of supplying gas via the traditional route, through Ukraine's Belgorod and Rostov region, it had been sent on a bypass route which would paralyse supplies to the towns of Donetsk and Luhansk. "This is just provocation against Ukraine," said Bohdan Sokolovsky, Ukraine's commissioner for energy security.

Now why would Russia care about Donetsk and Luhansk?  Because they belong to the part of Russia that usually supports Russia.  This forces the European-leaning Ukrainian government to choose between supplying Europe and cutting off the east of Ukraine, or keeping the east happy and cutting off Europe.  Fighting the coming election by gas flows? Looks like more mischief to me.

There's another lot of nasty stuff from the Ukrainians about Nazi tactics over the siege of Leningrad, none of which is going to help deal with the commercial issues of the gas price, which needs to be settled before things can get back to normal.

The Europeans get involved

What the previous post illustrates, (and especially the Ukrainian text quoted in the comment by blairs) is that dispatching of gas and information about dispatching of gas between Russia and Ukraine does not operate according to the sort of regulations that are promulgated throughout Europe, as part of the developing European gas market.

Gas transmission in Europe is subject to an agreed Gas Grid Code, so that gas is not turned off or down without prior notification and procedures for turning on are specified.  Of course mistakes can happen especially when there are political pressures on the one hand, but also a desire to get things moving again.  But operators used to working in a rational technical world would help out their colleagues. 

Maybe the European observers will make some recommendations about this for future reliability?  Are they going to make suggestions about a preferred route for the flow of European gas, when Ukrainian gas is turned off next winter?  With remote reading of the flows at the measuring stations so that the European monitors can stay at home and give us proper reports on what is happening? 

Nobody seems yet to be commenting on the precedent that this sets for future energy supply.  Perhaps we could expect new monitors to reveal the progress on repairs to the oil pipeline which supplies Lithuania, closed for a couple of years (?) for "repairs" and forcing the Lithuanians to import oil for Mazeikiu Nafta oil refinery. 

Gas with a life of its own (apparently)

In an article here about the current attempts at disinformation in the gas war, the Jamestown Foundation points out the following:

Disinformation operation two—Ukraine turned off the valves on the pipeline
preventing deliveries of Russian gas to EU countries. Gazprom deputy CEO
Alexander Medvedev, who is also a member of the coordinating committee of RUE (RosUkrEnergo) told a
press conference in London on January 6 that it was Ukraine that had closed down
the transit of gas to Europe and that Russia played no role whatsoever in this
(Vedomosti, January 6).

The following day Oleh Dubyna, the head
of Naftohaz, called Medvedev’s statement “absurd” and pointed out that all the
gas cutoff valves were located on the Russian side of the border. Dubyna
produced maps of the pipeline system, which clearly proved his assertion (UNIAN
press agency January 8).

Then, to make matters worse for Gazprom and
Putin’s disinformation operation, the world press reported on January 8 that
“Russia said on Thursday it would restore gas supplies to Europe through
Ukraine, once international monitors were in place…” (Ukrayinska
Pravda, January 8). If Gazprom’s original claim that Ukraine had shut down
the flow of gas to Europe were true, how could Russia now be ready to resume
shipments of gas that it claimed not to have shut down in the first place? Would
Russian troops move into Ukrainian territory, occupy the pipelines in that
country, and open the nonexistent valves?

How is it that the Putin, Medvedev and Gazprom think they can get away with such rubbish?  Doesn't anyone tell them they are constantly shooting themselves in the foot? Or is that just a silly question when you have tame press and a tame public.  However, a tame public is not usually to be found amongst people who are cold and who are losing their jobs.

Just at the moment, the next issue seems to be "hunt the gas".  The gas left Russia for Ukraine, but hasn't been seen since, and can't be found even by the EU monitors. 

More on the disinformation about middleman RosUkrEnergo is also provided. On the one hand this shadowy organisation was introduced at Russian insistance, and the Ukrainians (particularly Timoshenko) have been trying to get rid of it ever since.  On the other hand Putin claims he knows nothing about it.  What, sign such an important contract, without finding out who the other side is?  Is he stupid? maybe not but he's creating a suitable impression.