Below you can find a particularly interesting article from Novosti (Thanks to Sloph). I'm afraid I can't help but intersperse some comments of my own (in italics). Of course I am writing with the benefit of hindsight (it was written on late on 11 August). On the other hand, the reporter is described as a military commentator and therefore must have a reasonable background on what was going on.
The headline (taken from the actual article) deserves its own entry in the Newspeak dictionary of quotations that someone must be developing.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - The hostilities involving Russian and Georgian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have now been going on for more than four days, have eclipsed the Olympic Games in Beijing. This August has already entered the annals of history, but the situation continues to develop. (Pardon me, but is that something to be proud of, even if it was deliberately planned)
The situation has both military and political aspects. Militarily, the predictions of most experts have been vindicated- Georgia's blitzkrieg against South Ossetia has failed. Even in the first half of August 8, when Russian troops had yet to reach Tskhinvali, and flights by Russian aircraft were not frequent, the Georgian troops managed to occupy the greater part of city only after the second attempt. (You mean, despite all the planning, the Russians were caught with their pants down? You mean there were some experts that predicted that the Georgians might win against the might of the Russian army?)
At the same time, the Georgian troops demonstrated their ability to operate in a complicated situation. The South Ossetian volunteers were no less ready to resist the attack. (Some sneaking admiration here for the Georgians? The South Ossetian volunteers didn't have much choice if the Russians were slow to react)
The Russian armed forces deserve special mention. While being in far from its best shape, the Russian war machine proved to be quite efficient at all levels. Strategically, it was fast in making a decision and introducing troops. Operationally, it had enough combat-ready units at division level that could be quickly brought into action. Tactically, the army had to limit the use of heavy artillery and aviation to avoid civilian losses. (While being in far from its best shape: this must be the understatement of the year for an under-equipped, malnourished, conscript army brutalised by its officers. Somewhere since the war began I saw a report that Medvedev had recently replaced the top brass in the military in yet another attempt to reform the armed forces).
However, our efforts to suppress Georgian air defenses were not that great, and we lost more aircraft than we should have. But this is the first time since the Second World War that we have had to deal with air defense systems more serious than small-caliber artillery and PZRKs (handheld anti-aircraft missile systems). (What a terrible admission this is, that the Russian army cannot fight against anyone but guerrillas in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Perhaps the Georgians could have got the Roki tunnel after all.)
The fleet in timely fashion carried out a landing operation in Abkhazia. This is the first time it has engaged in action since the Great Patriotic War. (Oh my God, it finally manages to set sail, the 60 year old fleet).
As for the political situation, it is rather favorable. Apart from Georgia itself, only the United States, the Baltic nations, and Poland are obviously hostile towards Russia. The majority of states are urging both sides to cease-fire and return to the prewar situation. Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, has done a very good job of upholding Moscow's position, rebutting accusations of aggression, and preventing the formation of an anti-Russian coalition. (Funny how days later, this seems like a ridiculous view of the situation, with Russia losing the PR war at every stroke, and isolation of Russia's position becoming stronger every day.)
It is hard to make forecasts in a constantly changing situation, but from what information we have it seems that Russia's main goal is to destroy Georgia's military equipment and infrastructure, and deprive it of the ability to engage in active military operations. Russia is likely to continue bombing installations on Georgian territory, oust the Georgian troops from South Ossetia, and create a security belt around it, and around Abkhazia. At the same time, Russia will be limited in using heavy artillery for the reasons mentioned above. (You mean there are no briefings for Russian journalists so they get the story straight? Better not start on your own ideas like the last sentence, who knows where it will lead.)
It is clear that the anti-Russian coalition does not exist. The operation is likely to be completed in the next few days, after which talks will be resumed. The future of the Georgian leadership is the most interesting political issue. Some experts believe that Russia may demand extradition of some Georgian leaders for a trial. To sum up, Russia's actions have been undoubtedly positive. It has demonstrated its readiness to use all means, including armed force, for the protection of its citizens and national interests. (I'm not sure that this conclusion follows logically from the evidence cited, or is sufficient to overcome the doubts raised by the author himself.)
Technorati Tags: Georgia, Russia, war
