Speculations are rife about what Russia is planning for Abkhazia at the moment. You can read the hardline CIA view here. An extract:
Moscow is now openly erasing an internationally recognized border
through military force. It also exacerbates its continuing breach of the Treaty
on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) by augmenting the Russian heavy weaponry
in Abkhazia, which is also Georgian territory from that treaty’s point of view.
Russia has deployed “unaccounted-for treaty-limited equipment” (UTLE) in
Abkhazia and other secessionist territories for the past decade, above treaty
ceilings and beyond international verification. Some of that hardware (as well
as lighter weaponry) has been placed at the disposal of unlawful secessionist
forces. Russia also holds onto the Gudauta base and is apparently using it,
despite Moscow’s 1999 commitment to vacate the base by
2001.
International and Western organizations have, on the whole, tacitly
tolerated Russian militarization measures in Abkhazia from the 1990s to now.
These organizations and leading Western nations will risk their credibility if
they continue such tolerance after Moscow‘s latest, overtly military
moves.
Another view I have heard here in Tbilisi, is that Russia will not risk war in Abkhazia because of the risk to the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014. Money is apparently pouring into the region around Sochi, just across the border from Abkhazia. That conclusion's validity depends on how closely the investors are related to the government and Putin, and whether Putin cares what the world thinks about Abkhazia. Or possibly even if the world has a view on Abkhazia. China also miscalculated that the world did not care about Tibet.
But also it depends on calculated bluff calling. 2014 is a long way off and a frozen conflict could have a brief thaw before refreezing again.
Technorati Tags: Abkhazia, Georgia, Sochi, Russia, winter olympics
