Wu Wei

What's wrong with Georgia?

An interesting take here from Open Democracy. 

Entitled Georgia's pluralistic feudalism, the Greek author, Ilia Roubanis, points out that Georgian politics is dominated by personalities and that change is expected to come with a change of personality, not by change of policy.  All kings are threatened by the barons who wish to become kings in their turn.

Which brings me back to my post here on  the need for a Georgian Magna Carta.

August war again?

Latest from Yulia Latynina in the Moscow Times here:

The Kremlin's behavior is driven by both rational and irrational motives. An irrational motive is Putin's stated desire to hang Saakashvili by the balls. A rational motive is the desire to convince the world that Saakashvili has already hanged himself by the balls.

"Caucasus 2009" is strikingly similar to the Russian exercises that preceded the August 2008 war with Georgia. The smell of war is once again in the air. Counterterrorism operations have been instituted in the Prielbrusiye region on the Russian-Georgian border, many people have been evacuated from the region and Russia has beefed up its forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Like deja vu, the Kremlin is again accusing Georgia of aggression, and yet it is Moscow that has insisted that all observers from the United Nations and Europe leave the region to remove unnecessary witnesses to Russia's planned aggression. It would be difficult to label these moves as simply blackmail. Russia is mobilizing for war.

The Kremlin's foreign policy is driven by one basic principle: It will pursue an aggressive, hostile policy as long as it believes it can get away with it.

Joe Biden is coming to Tbilisi  between July 22 and 24.  After that there's a clear run for Putin unless Sarkozy has any plans to visit as well.

The Year of No Money in Tokyo by Wayne Lionel Aponte

I got this book free as one of LibraryThing's early reviewer scheme.  They hold a monthly lottery of books given away by their publishers with the condition that you provide a review.

I imagined this book as a sort of modern day "Down and Out in Paris and London" by George Orwell, or something like Patrick Leigh Fermor's books walking across Europe in the 30s to Istanbul.  Well, I couldn't have been more wrong.

First of all, there's not really no money, as when he loses his job, he bums the money for his rent off the Japanese girl he is sleeping with, finds another girl to sleep with in exchange for food....  You get the picture.

Then  it isn't really a year of no money, since the loss of old job (selling English language courses) and "finding himself" as an English language teacher are all done with in the period of a year.  

A better summary might be "black stud screws his way out of poverty and learns to live with himself afterwards".  It's not at first obvious that the American author is black, but eventually his attitude to women brings to mind obvious unpleasant stereotypes of black men.  

He considers his new profession as teacher (which he previously despised) as the best thing that happened to him, and provides us with a list of 11 key points which now guide his life including:

• the error of defining success by work and possessions
• the benefits of reinventing yourself
• the advantages of delayed gratification
• the disadvantages of unemotional and unintimate (sic) sex
• the value of monogamous relationships
• the power of pep talks.

There are some interesting views of Japanese life, but it's  hard to know how accurate or insightful they are when the rest is so crass.

I didn't like the book and I didn't like the author, even in his newly invented self.

New book widget

Finally got round to using LibraryThing's new feature of collections to divide the books I have tagged "to read" (some of which have been there for a couple of years, either not started or put down and never finished) from those I am carrying around at the moment and intending to read soon.

So you can see my new "currently reading" widget on the left.  Looks impressive for summer reading doesn't it?  But what do I find in my suitcase, but a book I have already read, a book I have read but need to review and the Ivan Bunin, which I am saving for Cyprus.  So will have to find a bookshop in Podgorica and search for something to read as even my sudoku book won't last that long.

Or perhaps I can order some more summer reading for Bee to bring to Cyprus along with the winter boots and manicure sets that I have ordered on instructions from friends.

The best cup of coffee in the Balkans ....

After complaining about the office coffee, a Bulgarian colleague working in the EU here in Podgorica announced:

    The best cup of coffee in the Balkans  is in.....

I held my breath wondering what he was going to say.  I know where I think the best cup of coffee is, but it's not always worthwhile to start an argument.

But it seemed that we both agreed that it was in Pristina.

Cue for reminiscing about coffee and Italian meals at Il Passatore, usually known as Antonella's (which figures top in my list of 5 best restaurants here).  The Montenegrans were rather surprised.

Even in the Kosovo Ministry, the coffee was better than most cafes you might think of as competition.

More gloom

From here

So now everyone awaits Obamas mission to Moscow on the 6th of july. Most analysts think that his performance would mean the difference of "invade" or "not invade" Georgia. I really hope Obama will be firm, and won't proceed with the naïve "reset" project. Russia needs US as an enemy in order to keep the current cleptocracy at the power, thus persuing the "reset" project will only serve to project US as weak, and confirm the image Putin want's to create.

The rest of the discussion and comments suggest that Russia has enough conflict in the North Caucasus to want to have more in the South.

On the other hand, in the 19th century, Russia conquered the North Caucasus only when it had conquered and created a stable peace in Georgia and control of its southern border.  So trouble erupting on its southern border would need to be sorted out first, with this line of thinking.

And this year in Georgia we have ...

From the Jamestown Foundation archive:

7 May 2009  Increasing risk of Russian Intervention in Georgia

12 May 2009 Radical Georgian Opposition Considers Shift in Tactics

21 May 2009 Radical Opposition Threatens to Disrupt Georgian Transportation

29 May 2009 Moscow Playing with Multiple Options on Black Sea Pipelines

2 June 2009 U.N. Secretary-General Revises Report on Abkhazia under Russian Pressure

12 June 2009 Moscow Ready to Scuttle U.N. and OSCE Missions in Georgia

18 June 2009 Russian Military Chief Accuses Georgia of Preparing Aggression

Sounds familiar doesn't it?  

Similarities with last year                                   
Disillusionment with Saakashvili                         
Disorganisation of the Opposition (and now more angry)                     
Russian military activity in breakaway areas (and increased  informal militias)  
Ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Ineffectiveness of UN and OSCE monitoring  (no monitoring in breakaway areas)                                     
Russian military manoeuvres in the North Caucasus again in July
Holiday season coming up

Extra disruptive factors
Global financial crisis distracting the rest of the world
Sever financial trouble at home in Russia needs adventures abroad as distraction
President Obama still supporting Georgia even though Europe has gone cool
NATO manoeuvres held in Georgia
More trouble in Moldova and Ukraine
Increasing troubles in North Caucasus this month
Awareness of the lack of readiness of Russian army

From the 16 June Jamestown article we have the following:

The most dangerous period within which a new full-scale war with Georgia might occur will be from July 10 until after President Barack Obama visits Moscow in August, while the invasion forces are already deployed and poised for action, under the cover of "Kavkaz-2009." If Russian forces go into action, their objectives will be decisive.

The author of the 16 June article, Pavel Felgenhauer, continues that the Russian strategic objectives will be:

1. Regime change and the forceful demilitarization of Georgia, fully dismantling and disarming the regime-loyal Georgian army, border guards and special police forces.

2. Establishing a secure land corridor linking Russia to its strategically important military base in Armenia.

3. Transforming Georgia into a loose confederation of its many semi-independent regions with their regional king-pins, with a weak central government and without any national military-security forces. Russian military forces will be permanently stationed within the Georgian confederation, ensuring influence, control of energy supply corridors to the Caspian and Central Asia, and ending the country's aspirations to join NATO.

The first objective will hardly be difficult given the performance of the Georgian army last year, since the global financial crisis has meant that it could not be re-equipped and it can hardly be much better trained now.  While the Russian army was not better equipped or much better disciplined, it comes with bigger numbers and fire power.

The second objective is essential, as currently not only is there no land access, but Georgia also controls the supply of gas to Armenia, and we all know that gas can be used as a political weapon.

The ease of achieving the third objective was amply demonstrated last August when Georgia was effective cut in two after the advance up to the main east-west highway at Gori, which also houses a large military base.  The advance on Tbilisi will be aided by the new motorway being constructed as part of Georgia's ambition to be a transportation transit corridor, to which it is dedicating most of its development resources, without considering the risks of putting all its eggs in one basket.

Felgenhauer continues that the Russian operational objectives will be to:

1. To engage and fully decimate the most capable Georgian government forces (artillery and special forces, including police special forces) in decisive battles.

2. To isolate Georgia from any possible external aid by taking under control its ports, major roads and airfields. One of the prime military targets of any future campaign could be the cluster of airfields and airstrips east of Tbilisi (Vaziani).

3. When the regular Georgian army, police and security forces are smashed, the existing political internal tensions could precipitate the disintegration of the present unified Georgian state. The international community may eventually leave Russia to manage the ensuing mess.

Russia managed to bomb Poti and the military airports last year without any problem. Felgenhauer has already described here in February the plan for taking Tbilisi so it is already well known.

And what else is reassuring?

With its present array of weapons, training and capabilities, the Georgian forces do not appear sufficient to deter Russia. The international community is doing almost nothing, apparently hoping that marginalizing Georgia and charming Russia is the best possible policy. The U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs Philip H. Gordon has confirmed that the U.S. will not provide Georgia with any defensive or other weapons (RIA Novosti, June 9). This development has been eagerly awaited in Moscow.

And I forgot: this year we don't have any distractions like the Olympic Games.  Luckily Joe Biden is coming to Georgia for 20-24 July.  That should give us till the end of July at least.

If that's not enough for you, I recommend this week's International Crisis Group report here, encouragingly titled "Georgia-Russia: Still Insecure and Dangerous".  That's only South Ossetia, apparently there's worse to come on Abkhazia.

This time last year in Georgia ....

From the Jamestown Foundation Archives (EuroAsia Daily Monitor except where marked otherwise)

1 May 2008  ANNEXATION AND MILITARIZATION OF ABKHAZIA CONTINUE APACE

2 May 2008 RUSSIA REINFORCES FORCES IN ABKHAZIA AS A POSSIBILITY OF ARMED CONFLICT LOOMS

5 May 2008  RUSSIA'S STRANGE "PEACEKEEPING" OPERATION IN ABKHAZIA

5 May 2008  RUSSIA DOUBLING ITS TROOPS IN GEORGIA'S ABKHAZIA REGION

6 May 2008  INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS PASSIVE AS RUSSIA MOVES TROOPS INTO ABKHAZIA

7 May 2008  THE WEST RESPONDS WEAKLY TO RUSSIAN CHALLENGES IN GEORGIA: PART I

8 May 2008 THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART II

9 May 2008 THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART III

12 May 2008  WILL PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV'S FIRST CRISIS BE GEORGIA?

15 May 2008 RUSSIAN JOURNALISTS USED AS CHANNEL FOR TBILISI-MOSCOW CONTACTS

16 May 2008 U.N. RESOLUTION ON ABKHAZIA SHOWS WHO'S WHO ON ETHNIC CLEANSING

19 May 2008 GEORGIA HOLDS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN A DANGEROUS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

21 May 2008  MOSCOW ENCOURAGES NORTH-SOUTH OSSETIAN IRREDENTISM AGAINST GEORGIA

22 May 2008 A GEORGIAN CHARM OFFENSIVE IN MOSCOW

3 June 2008  RUSSIA DEPLOYS RAILWAY TROOPS TO ABKHAZIA 

4 June 2008  EUROAPPEASEMENT: THE EU'S ANSWER TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA

13 June 2008   SOLANA RETURNS EMPTY-HANDED FROM ABKHAZIA

13 June 2008  MEDVEDEV CONTINUES AND ESCALATES PUTIN'S HARD LINE ON GEORGIA

19 June 2008  MOSCOW READY FOR MAJOR CONFRONTATIONS WITH PRO-WESTERN GEORGIA AND UKRAINE

19 June 2008  GEORGIAN OPPOSITION RIVEN BY MULTIPLE SPLITS AS NEW PARLIAMENT OPENS

23 June 2008  GAZPROM'S MOVE ON ABKHAZIA: MORE REASONS FOR GEORGIA TO BLOCK RUSSIA'S WTO ACCESSION

26 June 2008  THE WEST IS CONFUSED ABOUT WHAT TO DO IN ABKHAZIA

27 June 2008  GEORGIA HIGH ON THE EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT AGENDA

30 June 2008  GEORGIA LAUNCHES A THREE-TRACK DIPLOMATIC EFFORT ON ABKHAZIA

7 July 2008   GUAM SUMMIT HELD AMID ADVERSE TRENDS ON ENERGY AND THE FROZEN CONFLICTS

11 July 2008  "DE-RECOGNITION" OF GEORGIA'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY DISQUALIFIES RUSSIA AS "PEACEKEEPER"

17 July 2008  RUSSIA IS STRONGER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE

17 July 2008 Russia Holds Military Exercises in the North Caucasus  (North Caucasus Analysis)

18 JULY 2008  MOSCOW, SOKHUMI STOP GERMAN PLAN BEFORE THE START

22 JULY 2008  STEINMEIER'S PLAN ON ABKHAZIA: BENIGN INTENTIONS, LIMITED RELEVANCE, BLOCKED BY MOSCOW

23 JULY 2008 POST-MORTEMS ON THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

24 JULY 2008 GEORGIA, U.S. ADDRESSING GAPS IN THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

31 JULY 2008 RUSSIAN RAILROAD TROOPS COMPLETE MISSION IN ABKHAZIA

1 AUGUST 2008 BERLIN CONSULTATIONS ON ABKHAZIA DERAILED

4 AUGUST 2008 MOSCOW ORCHESTRATES WAR SCARE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

7 AUGUST 2008 OSSETIAN SEPARATISTS ARE PROVOKING A MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERVENTION

8 AUGUST 2008 THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW'S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

THE WAR HAS STARTED.

Did you see it coming?

What is a related post?

As recommended by Typepad here, I have installed the LinkWithin Widget which says it indexes your blog, finds related  posts and provides links at the bottom of the post. 

Certainly it does provide links, and even picks up an image from the post to show, which is rather good. Users claim it significantly increases pageviews. But its idea of what is a related post is rather bizarre. You would think it would use the tags I put on each post rather than guess.  I've left it installed for humour rather than usefulness.

Feel free to leave a comment on any page, about the appropriateness of what it suggests is related.

Not energy efficient but good for sunbathing

This photo was found by one of my Georgian colleagues when he was looking for pictures of double glazing.